Supporting adoption of advanced forecast informed reservoir operations tools to improve agricultural and municipal water and energy outcomes

Expanding the use of advanced forecast-informed reservoir operations tools can optimize or improve water delivery and storage for energy generation, irrigation, and municipal uses. Advanced forecast-informed data and tools are increasingly being integrated into large-scale reservoir operations to reduce flood risk and improve hydropower production. Larger-scale entities that own and operate reservoirs may have their own teams and processes to manage advanced forecast-informed operations. However, these advanced tools are not frequently leveraged for the management of agricultural or municipal storage reservoirs operated by smaller entities that lack the data and support needed to integrate shorter-term probabilistic weather and streamflow forecasts into their reservoir operations.

For reservoirs operated by entities with less technical capacity, where agricultural and municipal storage is the primary purpose, supporting increased adoption of existing advanced forecast-informed data and tools can potentially create a variety of significant benefits. Integrating available data, such as snowpack, short-term probabilistic ensemble weather forecasts, river flow forecasts, historical weather and river flows to produce ensemble inflow/runoff scenarios and risk-aware operational guidance for such reservoirs could improve the balancing of storage goals with managed aquifer recharge (MAR), environmental flows, habitat creation and protection, and ecosystem services, while also creating the potential to reduce groundwater pumping requirements, improve the generation of existing hydropower assets, the feasibility of hydropower generation at non-powered dams, or increase conduit hydropower output.

Several mechanisms may be needed to bring about increased adoption of forecast-informed tools by smaller agricultural and municipal reservoir operators. Identifying and testing additional and alternative data sources, integrations, and models through pilot studies with risk-tolerant partners could provide insights into the challenges of wide-spread adoption of forecast informed reservoir operations. Building institutional capacity by developing streamlined trainings, user-friendly decision-support resources, and shared staffing for both operators and resource agencies may increase confidence in adopting new operations. Engaging regulators and appropriate stakeholders for input through collaborative processes may be necessary to clarify legal flexibilities, identify opportunities to modernize outdated operating manuals, and ensure advanced forecast-informed approaches align with compliance requirements.

A variety of metrics can serve as indicators of the co-benefits from integrating advanced forecasting tools into reservoir operations, including both quantitative (e.g., measurable changes in storage, reduced groundwater pumping, hydropower generation, or reliability indices) and qualitative measures (e.g., operator confidence, stakeholder collaboration, regulatory flexibility).