Maximizing American Energy Dominance with Forecasts of Energy Infrastructure Flood Exposure and AI Predictions of Consequences

This white paper focuses on water for energy.

High frequency, reliable, and spatially explicit flood forecasts are necessary to forecast impacts to the energy system from hydrological hazards. While these tools are nearing operation at scale, they have not yet been systematically connected to information on critical energy infrastructure, creating a gap in how efficiently we use the knowledge generated by this significant program in support of energy resilience.

Over the next three to five years, significant opportunities exist to advance the resilience of the United States' energy-water systems by integrating emerging flood forecasting capabilities with models of the nation?s energy infrastructure. It is now feasible to couple flood inundation forecasts with models of the electricity transmission system and natural gas pipeline system with very high reliability. This integration would enable daily, automated energy system impact assessments based on continuously updated hydrologic forecasts. It would provide energy system operators with reliable, near-real-time insights into how forecasted water system hazards may disrupt critical energy infrastructure. Such a capability would improve situational awareness and extend the decision-making window for mitigation actions from hours to days. We aim to accomplish this goal by developing and demonstrating a connection between NOAAs Flood Inundation Model (FIM) capability, and existing Energy Resilience Models produced by the Department of Energy.

The success of this approach could be demonstrated by the ability to provide reliable, actionable, and probabilistic week-ahead forecasts of flood impacts to critical energy infrastructure. The primary quantitative measure of success will be the accuracy and reliability of the energy system forecasts, evaluated through (a) comparisons between predicted and observed flood impacts on specific energy infrastructure such as substations or compressor stations and (b) through comparisons between predicted and observed flood impacts on the electricity transmission system or natural gas pipeline system's ability to deliver energy to users. Indicators of enhanced energy system resilience could include reductions in outage duration and extent, and improvements in system recovery times following extreme events.