A Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment Model for How Emerging Biotechnologies Can Contribute to Decoupling Energy and Water Systems

Energy-water (EW) systems in the U.S. are deeply interconnected through complex networks vulnerable to disruptions, such as when a regional drought simultaneously impacts hydropower generation, thermoelectric production, and water availability across multiple sectors, producing knock-on economic effects. A fundamental challenge lies in integrating the theoretical and experimental work on the biotechnology side with TEA/systems models for each identified technological intervention. This requires new approaches, such as a unified modeling framework, that integrates the 14 diverse technological systems constituting the E-W nexus. A comprehensive assessment of energy-water interdependencies requires integrating biotechnology solutions, energy generation (e.g., coal plants, powerline networks), hydrogeneration, regional water systems (e.g., treatment, distribution), climate drivers, consumption patterns, and economic impacts into a single model that produces, as output, how biotechnological innovations can reduce system coupling, while optimizing resource availability and socioeconomic outcomes.

Near-Term Opportunity: There is an opportunity to produce an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)
that fuses geographic scales, systems (e.g., water, energy, economics, infrastructure), biotechnological viability assessments, earth system drivers, and demographic data into a single dashboard. Produced through partnerships with government, academia, and industry experts, this model will include AI/ML data integration, TEA projection, novel biotechnology interventions, technological learning curves, and scenario analysis. This IAM will serve as a unified decision support system, providing decisionmakers with comprehensive insights into viable biotechnological interventions that can decouple energy-water dependencies, enhancing system resilience in the near term.

Success Measures: The IAM will feature a comprehensive success metrics dashboard that evaluates biotechnology interventions across systemic resilience, economic viability, and societal impact dimensions. The platform will deliver the following specific outputs to guide decision-makers in evaluating energy-water system interventions: (1) Water availability total increase amounts at the basin scale (i.e., aquifer recovery and recharge rates; (2)Percentage decreases in energy demand, measured in megawatt-hours (MWh), for desalination and purification processes; (3) Reduced cooling water withdrawals, in gallons per year; and (4) Volume of reclaimed water, in gallons per year, that meet regional quality requirements for conservation and/or agricultural reuse.