Quantifying compound hazard risk to energy and water systems

The focal area is identification and quantification of the risk of combined (compound) hazards on water and energy systems and their interactions. The existing challenge is addressing risk and consequences to energy and water systems by compound hazards is an emerging area of study. Individual hazards are typically well documented in the published literature, but information about combined risk and consequences still has many gaps. These gaps include:

1. Complexity of Hazard Interactions
2. Lack of Comprehensive Data and Inadequate Modeling Techniques
4. Regional Variability in Hazard Types and Policies
5. Uncertainty of Hazard Drivers and Compound Risk

Near-Term Opportunity: There are several opportunities for activities that could result in substantial gains in mitigating compound hazard effects on water and energy systems. Mitigation of compound hazards could have an immediate and high value impact on economic activities and public safety. A range of both physical and social science efforts is needed to identify, quantify, and communicate the existing and future risk of compound hazards. Progress towards addressing the risks for the energy and water systems requires an integration of federal, state, and local engagement. This engagement will consist of data sharing, numerical modeling, policy analysis, and public meetings. Near-term opportunities include:

1. Advances in Data Integration and Technologies
2. Interdisciplinary Research and Collaboration
3. Expansion of Climate and Hazard Modeling
4. Infrastructure Risk Assessments
5. Leveraging the National Risk Index
6. Resilience Policies

Success Measure: Success in quantifying compound hazard risk to energy and water systems means improving the understanding of multi-hazard impacts, identifying critical vulnerabilities, and creating actionable pathways for mitigating risks. It also means transitioning from a reactionary system to one that is proactive, equitable, and resilient. These measures will ensure that critical infrastructure systems can continue to provide services sustainably, even in the face of increasingly complex and novel hazards.

Metrics for long-term success related to water and energy systems include:
- Reduced service disruptions during actual compound hazard events compared to historical baselines
- Decreased recovery times following compound events
- Targeted investments in critical vulnerabilities identified through assessment
- Improved planning/response coordination between energy and water sectors
- Enhanced equity in service maintenance across different communities