A National Framework for Water-Informed Geothermal Expansion and Energy-Water Resilience

This white paper outlines the need for a coordinated, national framework to guide geothermal energy expansion in ways that use water efficiently and strengthen energy-water resilience. It highlights the opportunity to connect national-to-regional modeling with site-scale analysis, integrating multi-sector modeling approaches with finer-resolution siting and water-planning tools.

Focal Area: The paper focuses on water-informed geothermal planning--linking data, models, and decision tools so that geothermal growth enhances, rather than competes with, U.S. water resilience.

Challenges: Geothermal currently provides about 4 GW of firm power in the United States, yet DOE envisions substantial capacity expansion (up to 90 GW) by 2050. Achieving that scale of expansion requires understanding how geothermal deployment interacts with evolving water demands across agricultural, municipal, and industrial sectors. Key challenges include (1) water availability and cooling trade-offs that constrain siting and scalability, particularly in arid western basins; (2) shifting water demands and reuse opportunities as the broader power sector transitions; and (3) fragmented data systems and inconsistent definitions of withdrawal, consumption, and reuse that hinder coordinated planning.

Near-Term Opportunities: The next three to five years provide a window to establish a national analytical framework that links multi-sector models with regional siting tools, standardizes water data, and launches geothermal-wastewater pilot projects. This includes demonstrating co-benefits through co-location with industrial and data-center loads, improving representation of geothermal technologies in system-scale models, and harmonizing cross-agency reporting standards.

Success Measures: Progress will be indicated by measurable reductions in freshwater intensity through expanded use of reclaimed, brackish, or closed-loop cooling; improved basin-level water balances in regions of geothermal development; validated, model-informed siting decisions that align new capacity with sustainable water availability; interoperability among models enabling feedbacks between national and regional scales; and demonstrated use of these linked tools by DOE, states, and industry to inform siting, investment, and R&D priorities.